Measurements for understanding the pace of AI development inside frontier labs

Paper · Source
Frontier AI Risk & RSI

Source: Anthropic · 2026-09

AI systems are becoming exponentially more powerful and have begun to automate more of the process of building themselves. As the world considers slowing the pace of frontier AI development, the public needs more information.

We also provide a snapshot of these metrics from inside Anthropic. It’s important to note that we would expect these numbers to shift if there were coordination on pacing the frontier, as called for by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. We plan to embed independent third-party evaluators from multiple organizations at Anthropic, and give them access to internal processes, systems, and data comparable to what internal risk assessment teams have. These third parties will verify safety practices, report incidents, and monitor key metrics such as the ones in this piece.

We are reporting these measurements because they give the public, third parties, and governments better visibility into the pace of AI development inside frontier labs. For each measurement, we describe what we measured, what the measurement showed, and what it would take to publish these measurements regularly in a form others can verify. We share methodological details in the Appendix.

Why measure AI-led R&D? Frontier AI labs increasingly use AI to build future AI models. This process allows labs in democratic countries to develop more capable models more quickly and conduct more safety and testing on models before they are released to secure AI’s benefits while staying on the frontier. However, models accelerating their own development could make it more challenging for humans to understand or control these systems. It is therefore important to share these metrics to understand how close the world is to reaching recursive self improvement (a model fully autonomously building its successor).

Claude “leads” 26% of Anthropic’s AI R&D work.

The share of work at or above “AI collaborates” is above 90%.

Why measure oversight of agents? Like other frontier developers, Anthropic employees increasingly delegate tasks to agents that work semi-autonomously for long stretches, and that delegate work to one another. As work becomes increasingly automated, from “AI collaborates” toward “AI leads,” agents could make more consequential decisions, such as which research direction to pursue next.

What we found. As of August 2026, there were approximately 30,000 agents doing research and engineering work at Anthropic at any one time in our most-used internal platform. These measurements cover this platform only. The actions of these agents are constrained by two kinds of monitors, summarized below:

Why measure compute allocation? Broadly speaking, AI developers use compute for building more powerful models, serving customers, and safety-focused work like auditing a model’s “thoughts”, training model organisms to study misalignment, and evaluating whether a model can be safely deployed. Understanding how AI developers allocate their compute can tell you where a developer is focusing its resources and how that focus changes over time.

Additionally, compute is among the most verifiable inputs to the AI R&D process, meaning that it could be a critical lever in a future pacing effort. A coordinated pacing effort could encourage companies to increase the compute allocated to safety across the industry and devote more resources to alignment, interpretability, safety testing, and evaluation.

Lines of inquiry this paper opens 20

Research framings built by reading the notes related to this paper — the questions it feeds into.

Can AI research automation sustain progress through accelerating feedback loops? Should models ask for clarification when facing ambiguous or under-specified information? Do individually safe AI actions create unsafe outcomes in integrated systems? How do evaluation environment design choices affect AI security? What governance mechanisms can effectively constrain widely deployed AI systems? Should governance of agentic AI systems be runtime or design-time?